Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4d0…269a
other · 42 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$27 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage460d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 64¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 +$3 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 12 $2 +$27 +1076%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $10 −$1 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $11 $0 -3%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 26? Mar 26 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% $0
other 28% −$1
politics 18% +$27
crypto 11% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $22 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $6 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $10 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $11 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $20 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $11 10h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $30 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $2 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $25 17h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $28 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $10 350d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $10 384d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? SELL No 96¢ $10 384d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? BUY No 96¢ $10 384d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? SELL No 99¢ $9 384d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $9 385d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 385d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 385d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 385d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 385d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 41 +23.7% +11.9% 54% 2% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 2% -4.7%
10% +1.2% 2% -13.8%
15% -8.6% 2% -22.1%
20% -17.5% 2% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.52 · official $27.52 (match) · 112 history records