Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4d1…3d4c sports 515 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,902 (-8%) realized −$1,784 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%133W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$165
14 days−$511
30 days−$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,426
crypto 14% −$143
other 5% −$484
finance 3% −$371
politics 2% −$13
world 2% −$324
economics 0% +$516
culture 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -24.3% -31.5% 0% 0% -31.5%
≤30d 39 -44.0% -49.3% 15% 15% -32.5%
≤90d 193 -58.1% -62.1% 11% 11% -57.7%
all 514 -3.5% -12.7% 26% 25% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 25% -17.6%
10% -21.1% 24% -25.5%
15% -28.7% 24% -32.7%
20% -35.7% 23% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$44 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,784
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses133 / 381
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)514 / 515
History coverage174d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 14¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $680 −$165 -24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $26 −$26 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $53 −$51 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $76 +$171 +226%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $35 −$34 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $73 −$71 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $64 −$63 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$67 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $76 −$74 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $86 −$35 -41%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $47 −$46 -97%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $84 −$83 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $69 −$68 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $45 +$99 +220%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $25 +$18 +73%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $82 −$81 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $63 −$62 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 3 Winner May 31 $24 −$24 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $62 +$141 +226%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $76 +$461 +611%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $51 +$77 +152%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $17 −$17 -97%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner May 14 $60 −$59 -98%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 04 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 04 $60 +$112 +186%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $75 −$73 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 03 $76 −$75 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 03 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 03 $25 −$24 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 03 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner May 03 $74 −$73 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $121 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $122 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $61 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $82 40h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $16 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $51 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 6¢ $10 7d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 11¢ $25 8d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 18¢ $28 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 14¢ $8 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $26 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $75 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 12d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $246 12d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $76 12d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 11¢ $35 12d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 31¢ $25 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $24 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $25 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $25 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $15 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 8¢ $21 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 26¢ $51 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 20¢ $25 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 35¢ $40 13d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 3¢ $16 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 41¢ $29 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 9¢ $26 14d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 28¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.42 (match) · 1548 history records