Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C4 0xc4d3…5639 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,292 (+31%) realized +$1,320 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 55% +28.2%
≤30d 58 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 55% +28.2%
≤90d 58 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 55% +28.2%
all 58 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 55% +28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 55% +28.2%
10% -1.3% 55% +15.9%
15% -10.8% 55% +4.7%
20% -19.5% 55% -5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$45 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$1,320
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions8
Markets (closed)58 / 66
History coverage6d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Michel Pereira 24¢ 24¢ $389 $398 +$8 (+2%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 65¢ 66¢ $209 $214 +$5 (+2%)
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Ethan Quinn 40¢ 40¢ $167 $165 −$2 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 53¢ 46¢ $127 $109 −$18 (-14%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 44¢ 46¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+3%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 56¢ 50¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Tatjana Maria 25¢ 14¢ $43 $23 −$20 (-46%)
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Bekzat Almakhan 39¢ 40¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $602 +$724 +120%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 27 $51 +$47 +93%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $138 +$228 +166%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 27 $181 +$298 +165%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) Jun 26 $226 −$222 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $217 +$358 +165%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) Jun 26 $115 −$114 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $103 +$132 +129%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $45 +$41 +92%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 +$5 +114%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $166 +$197 +119%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $94 −$93 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 25 $74 −$73 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $166 −$163 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $55 −$55 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $56 −$55 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $22 +$23 +105%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 25 $24 +$19 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $25 +$28 +114%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 25 $18 +$29 +165%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $18 +$18 +101%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $24 +$25 +101%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $8 +$8 +97%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $24 −$24 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $25 −$24 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $39 +$38 +97%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $11 +$9 +79%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $29 +$37 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $3 +$5 +146%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $6 +$8 +130%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $9 +$19 +206%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $18 +$21 +118%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $6 +$8 +129%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $28 +$25 +90%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $21 +$20 +93%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5 Jun 23 $16 +$16 +101%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5) Jun 23 $19 +$20 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 24¢ $398 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $1,326 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Tatjana Maria 25¢ $44 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 40¢ $170 5h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 65¢ $211 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 43¢ $267 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 46¢ $335 7h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $181 12h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) BUY PortlandFire 46¢ $226 14h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $51 17h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 52¢ $115 28h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 39¢ $16 30h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $129 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 37¢ $217 32h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $94 37h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 51¢ $74 37h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 37¢ $138 38h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $166 40h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 45¢ $166 42h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 44¢ $79 42h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 40¢ $46 42h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 43¢ $103 43h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 56¢ $35 47h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 51¢ $45 47h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 46¢ $5 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 51¢ $55 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $56 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $7 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $8 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,035.87 · official $1,035.87 (match) · 100 history records