Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc4d4…a750 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$404 (+11%) realized +$234 · open +$170
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$388
14 days+$378
30 days+$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$785
other 13% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.1% -23.2% 30% 30% +0.1%
≤30d 24 -18.7% -26.4% 29% 29% -0.2%
≤90d 24 -18.7% -26.4% 29% 29% -0.2%
all 24 -18.7% -26.4% 29% 29% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 29% -0.2%
10% -33.5% 29% -9.7%
15% -39.9% 29% -18.5%
20% -45.8% 29% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$130 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$234
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 100¢ $100 $270 +$170 (+170%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $193 +$203 +105%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$141 +276%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $87 −$85 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $255 −$250 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $254 −$250 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $132 +$113 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $696 +$1,440 +207%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $183 +$278 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $163 −$160 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 +$243 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $93 +$176 +188%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $193 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $87 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $254 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $255 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $254 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $92 2d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $132 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,135 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $400 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $61 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $461 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $296 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $183 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $112 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $61 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $93 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 6d
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.14 · official $270.14 (match) · 36 history records