Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4d5…b7de weather 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$4
other 13% −$1
weather 12% +$1
sports 0% −$26
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage186d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 27? May 26 $128 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 23? May 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $706 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $424 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on March 23? Mar 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 20 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $467 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $453 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 14 Mar 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 12? Mar 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 9? Mar 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C or below on March 7? Mar 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 02 $21 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 23 $26 −$26 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr Feb 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 30? Feb 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on January 30? Feb 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on Janu Feb 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on January Jan 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on January Jan 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C or higher on Dece Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on December 2 Jan 01 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $128 33d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $60 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $705 75d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $706 78d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $721 78d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $722 81d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 86d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $669 87d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $424 88d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $424 88d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $59 98d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $680 100d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $680 101d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $467 102d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $467 102d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 103d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 104d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $453 105d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $453 106d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 14 BUY No 100¢ $42 107d
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $59 109d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $61 112d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C or below on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $11 114d
Kings vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 60¢ $26 125d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr BUY No 100¢ $8 130d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $21 145d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on Janu BUY No 100¢ $23 149d
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.48 · official $288.48 (match) · 73 history records