Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4d6…b2a6 other 713 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$583 (-2%) realized −$583 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%407W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$180
14 days−$221
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$645
other 42% −$97
crypto 4% −$174
world 1% −$17
politics 1% +$55
economics 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -2.8% -12.0% 59% 53% -17.5%
≤30d 215 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 53% -12.4%
≤90d 713 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 47% -12.0%
all 713 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 47% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 47% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 33% -20.4%
15% -28.9% 19% -28.1%
20% -35.8% 8% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses407 / 306
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions0
Markets (closed)713 / 713
History coverage78d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 713 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $80 +$32 +41%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $54 −$8 -15%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $68 −$34 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$13 +24%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $29 +$4 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 +$20 +60%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $27 +$2 +8%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $68 −$41 -60%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $65 +$3 +4%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $69 −$3 -4%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $242 −$51 -21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$14 +28%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$14 -72%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$25 -62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$10 -41%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$21 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$140 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$38 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $80 3h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 7¢ $2 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $30 16h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $17 16h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 58¢ $10 16h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 80¢ $25 18h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 63¢ $20 19h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 40¢ $20 19h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $33 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $34 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $68 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $54 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $34 36h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Ugo Humbert 89¢ $33 37h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Ugo Humbert 77¢ $29 37h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Sebastian Ofner 86¢ $29 38h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 79¢ $27 38h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 25¢ $28 39h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $68 39h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 93¢ $68 40h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $65 40h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria SELL Rwanda 72¢ $66 40h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 74¢ $69 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $68 43h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 91¢ $62 44h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 50¢ $63 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1823 history records