Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc4d6…966b crypto 293 markets active 6h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$3,786 (+14%) realized +$3,781 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%147W / 181L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$728now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$342
crypto 23% −$16
weather 13% −$335
other 13% +$178
politics 4% +$32
finance 3% +$2
sports 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +186.8% +159.5% 34% 28% -1.4%
≤30d 229 +42.6% +29.0% 52% 49% -6.8%
≤90d 328 +33.2% +20.5% 45% 40% -9.3%
all 328 +33.2% +20.5% 45% 40% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.5% 40% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here +9.0% 34% -17.9%
15% -1.5% 24% -25.9%
20% -11.2% 17% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$728
Realized+$3,781
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses147 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)328 / 293
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $160 $196 +$36 (+22%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $214 $174 −$40 (-19%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $133 $150 +$17 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $50 +$17 (+50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-7%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $17 −$6 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $17 −$6 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Smith vs. Tu: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Jun 18 $4 +$83 +2198%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +447%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 14? Jun 18 $4 +$12 +289%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $0 −$4 -6458%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$130 +24928%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Dominika Salkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Jun 18 $20 −$30 -149%
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -39%
Keegan Smith vs. Li Tu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MIRA-CJL win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber o Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $2 +$7 +305%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in third place in the first round of th Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14? Jun 18 $0 +$3 +971%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on April 14? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 15? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Clo Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$331 +12832%
Altmaier vs. Molcan: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 18 $0 +$18 +9827%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$57 +2100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 14? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 18 $6 −$3 -43%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $118 +$7 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +57%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$5 -9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $23 +$25 +110%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $239 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $897 −$22 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $33 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 9¢ $8 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 13¢ $11 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 13¢ $2 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 13¢ $5 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 15¢ $33 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $64 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $727.72 · official $727.72 (match) · 3500 history records