Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4d8…0ffb other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-15%) realized −$34 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$33
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 44% -12.3%
≤30d 9 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 44% -12.3%
≤90d 9 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 44% -12.3%
all 9 -22.0% -29.5% 44% 44% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 44% -12.3%
10% -36.2% 33% -20.7%
15% -42.4% 33% -28.3%
20% -48.0% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $22 +$21 +93%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $16 +$9 +55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $56 −$38 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 +$13 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 78¢ $43 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $38 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $18 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $14 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.88 · official $44.88 (match) · 24 history records