Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4d9…e96e crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$23 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate83%19W / 4L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.6% -8.9% 83% 9% -6.4%
≤30d 23 +0.6% -8.9% 83% 9% -6.4%
≤90d 23 +0.6% -8.9% 83% 9% -6.4%
all 23 +0.6% -8.9% 83% 9% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 9% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 9% -15.4%
15% -25.6% 0% -23.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses19 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$6 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $41 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $38 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $32 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.62 · official $44.62 (match) · 61 history records