Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc4da…9944 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$8
other 11% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 20% -8.1%
≤30d 5 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 20% -8.1%
≤90d 7 +3.6% -6.2% 100% 14% -8.8%
all 7 +3.6% -6.2% 100% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 14% -8.8%
10% -15.2% 0% -17.5%
15% -23.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -30.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage45d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $886 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $210 +$13 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $998 +$2 +0%
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5 May 16 $996 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $50 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 47h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $877 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $0 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $9 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $13 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 100¢ $998 30d
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5.5 100¢ $996 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records