Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4dc…01e3 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%19W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$3
crypto 16% $0
world 4% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 80% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +1.7% -8.0% 88% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 21 +1.7% -7.9% 90% 0% -9.1%
all 21 +1.7% -7.9% 90% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 0% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×14.06 per $1 lost it wins $14.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses19 / 2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)21 / 30
History coverage44d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $273 $273 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? No 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 19 $263 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 15 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $2 $0 +6%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $204 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dell say "PowerStore" during earnings call? May 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $8 $0 +5%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $273 37h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 37h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $263 37h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 86¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $263 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $13 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $275 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $274 19d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 22d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $204 22d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 BUY Yes 94¢ $2 23d
Will Dell say "PowerStore" during earnings call? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 23d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 36d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 36d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 36d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 36d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $12 36d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 36d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 36d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 36d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.90 · official $408.90 (match) · 88 history records