Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4dc…b446 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$482 (-22%) realized −$479 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$154
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$471
sports 12% −$156
other 6% +$89
politics 5% +$10
world 3% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 18 -30.7% -37.3% 44% 28% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 28% -30.7%
10% -43.3% 11% -37.3%
15% -48.8% 11% -43.4%
20% -53.8% 11% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$74 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$479
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage566d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 −$51 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Solana hit $200 in December? Apr 07 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? Apr 07 $638 −$303 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Apr 07 $453 +$74 +16%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Dec 19 $56 +$44 +78%
Will HEROIC win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024? Dec 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by Sunday? Dec 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000.00 in December? Dec 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Dec 09 $79 +$17 +21%
Lily Phillips breaks record for sex in one day? Dec 09 $53 +$7 +13%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 08 $54 +$98 +180%
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? Dec 08 $119 +$10 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Dec 07 $86 −$26 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? Dec 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 44h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 44h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $52 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $2 3d
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? BUY Yes 96¢ $233 551d
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? SELL No 13¢ $5 551d
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? SELL No 13¢ $87 551d
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 551d
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? BUY No 57¢ $151 561d
Will Solana hit $200 in December? BUY No 22¢ $66 561d
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? BUY No 57¢ $23 561d
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? BUY No 57¢ $170 561d
Will Ethereum hit $3,300 in December? BUY No 57¢ $61 561d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? SELL No 85¢ $97 561d
Will Solana hit $200 in December? BUY No 36¢ $156 561d
Lily Phillips breaks record for sex in one day? SELL No 60¢ $60 562d
Will HEROIC win the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 562d
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 562d
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 562d
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? SELL Yes 23¢ $131 562d
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? BUY Yes 8¢ $54 562d
Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 562d
Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 562d
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? SELL No 98¢ $70 563d
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? BUY No 80¢ $58 563d
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 563d
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 563d
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 563d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.15 · official $99.15 (match) · 53 history records