Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc4de…0da4 sports 412 markets active 5d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,507 (-2%) realized −$4,507 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%200W / 212L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$605per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$811est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$472
14 days−$126
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$14,283
world 3% +$7,584
other 2% +$1,568
culture 0% +$52
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.4% -20.7% 33% 28% -21.7%
≤30d 76 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 42% -11.5%
≤90d 291 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 43% -13.7%
all 412 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 44% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 44% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 35% -19.8%
15% -25.7% 24% -27.6%
20% -32.9% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$256 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses200 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$811
Open positions0
Markets (closed)412 / 412
History coverage111d
Avg bet$605
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 412 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$4 -27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $288 −$129 -45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $435 −$86 -20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $104 −$30 -28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $93 −$57 -62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$7 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $137 +$63 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,226 −$313 -26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$42 -42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $251 −$49 -19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $488 +$166 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $146 −$39 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $51 +$23 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $159 +$31 +20%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $148 −$23 -15%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $132 +$75 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $187 +$30 +16%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $113 +$90 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $21 −$6 -27%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $310 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $384 +$60 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$45 +45%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $410 −$52 -13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $176 +$80 +46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $103 −$72 -70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $205 +$44 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $302 −$97 -32%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $72 +$29 +40%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $201 +$72 +36%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $343 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $243 −$74 -30%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $169 +$29 +17%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $205 +$146 +71%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $111 −$6 -5%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $181 −$69 -38%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $129 +$52 +40%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $207 −$78 -38%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $311 −$41 -13%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $163 +$85 +52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $169 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $128 +$41 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $76 +$52 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $135 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $203 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $100 −$26 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 75¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 52¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 70¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 20¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 43¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 60¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 10¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $28 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 39¢ $28 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 43¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 84¢ $84 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 37¢ $84 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $134 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 14¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 29¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 47¢ $148 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $186 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 59¢ $186 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 68¢ $219 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 38¢ $75 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 52¢ $95 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 52¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2069 history records