Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4e3…d4f7
other · 114 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$286 +34%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$256 · open +$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$118
Realized+$256
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 64
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit37%
Chart Positions 1 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$233
14 days+$229
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 68¢ 100¢ $49 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $15 $45 +$30 (+203%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $65 +$36 +56%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$6 +289%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 10 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +128%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +170%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +245%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $94 +$120 +128%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 −$7 -96%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $1 +$3 +289%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +21%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $6 +$8 +137%
Will Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $6 +$10 +165%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $9 +$17 +186%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 +$7 +236%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 +$10 +463%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% +$156
sports 25% +$125
world 2% +$13
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL No 6¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY No 16¢ $1 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 17h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY No 48¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 18h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 24h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 25h
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $2 47h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $101 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $65 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 95¢ $51 3d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 3d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +14.5% +3.6% 48% 48% +40.9%
≤30d 113 +5.9% -4.1% 43% 43% +18.9%
≤90d 113 +5.9% -4.1% 43% 43% +18.9%
all 113 +5.9% -4.1% 43% 43% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 43% +18.9%
10% -13.3% 41% +7.5%
15% -21.7% 37% -2.9%
20% -29.4% 32% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.06 · official $118.06 (match) · 249 history records