Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4e4…6d8d world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 19% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 9 -4.9% -14.0% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -4.2% -13.4% 40% 0% -10.1%
all 22 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.0%
10% -18.6% 5% -17.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage487d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $6 −$2 -26%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 31 $10 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $11 $0 -0%
FCSB vs. PAOK Mar 04 $8 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $39 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $3 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $4 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $17 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $2 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $15 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $37 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $37 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $37 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records