Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4e8…e251 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$266 (-40%) realized −$265 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$169
sports 19% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 55% -52.8%
≤30d 22 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 55% -52.8%
≤90d 22 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 55% -52.8%
all 22 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 55% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 55% -52.8%
10% -28.1% 36% -57.3%
15% -35.0% 36% -61.5%
20% -41.4% 27% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$34 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$265
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $213 −$210 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +57%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-0 Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$13 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 11h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 12h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 89¢ $20 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-0 BUY 68¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.44 · official $99.45 (match) · 51 history records