Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C4 0xc4e9…867f other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$567 (+31%) realized +$580 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip

Net edge+35%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$459per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$750now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+40.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+55.2%	+40.4%	100%	100%	+37.5%
≤30d	3	+55.2%	+40.4%	100%	100%	+37.5%
≤90d	3	+55.2%	+40.4%	100%	100%	+37.5%
all	3	+55.2%	+40.4%	100%	100%	+37.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.4%	100%	+37.5%
10%	+27.0%	100%	+24.3%
15%	+14.7%	100%	+12.3%
20%	+3.4%	33%	+1.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$185 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$750

Realized+$580

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$459

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	90¢	88¢	$762	$750	−$13 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$517	+$247	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$350	+$167	+48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$203	+$142	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$765	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$517	16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$517	17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$350	19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$344	20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $749.53 · official $749.53 (match) · 7 history records