Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C4 0xc4e9…f43c politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,967per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$15
politics 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 7 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,967
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 14 $15,484 −$16 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 14 $47 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $34 19d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 19d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 58d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 85d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $34 85d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $34 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? SELL No 100¢ $15,469 101d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $47 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15,484 101d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $47 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 15 history records