Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4eb…76dc
crypto · 1681 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$73 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$73 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1475 / 207
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1682 / 1681
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1682 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$19
14 days−$33
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$65
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -5.6% -14.6% 82% 54% -13.9%
≤30d 634 -4.0% -13.1% 84% 56% -12.9%
≤90d 790 -3.9% -13.0% 85% 47% -13.0%
all 1682 -2.0% -11.4% 88% 28% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 28% -11.2%
10% -19.9% 2% -19.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.35 · official $2.22 · 3500 history records