Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f0…3456 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$752 (-19%) realized −$752 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$90
crypto 32% −$824
world 16% −$54
sports 2% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-63.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -98.1% -98.3% 0% 0% -96.4%
≤30d 3 -98.1% -98.3% 0% 0% -96.4%
≤90d 3 -98.1% -98.3% 0% 0% -96.4%
all 21 -60.0% -63.8% 14% 5% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.8% 5% -29.3%
10% -67.3% 0% -36.0%
15% -70.4% 0% -42.2%
20% -73.3% 0% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$64 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage140d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $67 −$63 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 28 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 28 $136 −$80 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10AM ET Feb 28 $180 −$75 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 28 $49 −$48 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 28 $562 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $615 −$54 -9%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1,080 +$229 +21%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 23 $158 −$42 -26%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 23 $145 +$9 +6%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 23 $100 −$69 -69%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 23 $58 −$19 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 08 $244 −$161 -66%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3PM ET Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL South Africa $4 40m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 33¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down $0 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $56 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $105 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $54 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records