Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f2…667e sports 951 markets active 2h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$488 (-8%) realized −$490 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%269W / 667L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$53
14 days+$77
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$328
crypto 17% −$152
other 13% −$130
politics 4% −$26
world 2% −$22
finance 1% −$11
tech 0% −$15
culture 0% −$6
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +18.7% +7.4% 30% 29% +0.9%
≤30d 198 -4.3% -13.4% 29% 28% -11.6%
≤90d 594 -29.8% -36.5% 25% 23% -28.2%
all 936 -23.1% -30.4% 29% 27% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 27% -19.7%
10% -37.1% 25% -27.4%
15% -43.1% 23% -34.4%
20% -48.7% 21% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$490
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses269 / 667
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)936 / 951
History coverage589d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 936 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+138%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 76¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +272%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -56%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$5 -49%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +218%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +808%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +123%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +248%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +545%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$7 +596%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$11 -78%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Scotland wi Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +262%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $4 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 41¢ $4 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $4 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 28¢ $3 8h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $3 8h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $2 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 31¢ $5 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 34¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.86 · official $22.86 (match) · 3224 history records