Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc4f6…0ee8
sports · 54 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$90 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$87 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 28¢ 51¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+82%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 45¢ 40¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 46¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Gen.G 21¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner MOUZ 33¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $41 −$17 -41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$60 +291%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$14 +140%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$31 -61%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 12 $10 +$20 +194%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$40 +194%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$36 +71%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$17 +165%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $10 +$9 +88%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$20 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$3 -6%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$16 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$90
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 39¢ $2 9m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 46¢ $3 14m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 48¢ $4 15m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 40¢ $4 58m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 18¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 17¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 27¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $24 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $30 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 58¢ $16 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 43¢ $5 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 53¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 35¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $19 4h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 21¢ $26 7h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 8h
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? SELL No 26¢ $24 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 20h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $10 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 15¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 22¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 25¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 25¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 34¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -12.3% -20.7% 34% 32% -20.3%
≤30d 47 -12.3% -20.7% 34% 32% -20.3%
≤90d 47 -12.3% -20.7% 34% 32% -20.3%
all 47 -12.3% -20.7% 34% 32% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 32% -20.3%
10% -28.2% 32% -27.9%
15% -35.2% 32% -34.9%
20% -41.5% 32% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.63 · official $45.63 (match) · 118 history records