Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc4f7…fc7c other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$439 (-33%) realized −$432 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$36
other 48% −$535
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-69.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -66.2% -69.4% 10% 10% -52.7%
≤30d 10 -66.2% -69.4% 10% 10% -52.7%
≤90d 10 -66.2% -69.4% 10% 10% -52.7%
all 10 -66.2% -69.4% 10% 10% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.4% 10% -52.7%
10% -72.3% 10% -57.2%
15% -75.0% 10% -61.4%
20% -77.4% 10% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$97 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$432
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage30d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $184 $180 −$4 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 26 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 26 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 26 $208 −$208 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $159 +$380 +238%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $160 −$150 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $195 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $107 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $160 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $159 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 11d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $80 11d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $35 11d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $80 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 11d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 11d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 11d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $32 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $32 11d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 30d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 18¢ $202 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.34 · official $277.34 (match) · 29 history records