Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f8…97b3 other 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,185 (-2%) realized −$1,185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%261W / 310L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$17
14 days+$33
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$358
sports 10% −$306
world 2% −$145
politics 1% −$25
culture 1% −$237
tech 0% −$25
economics 0% −$36
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -24.7% -31.8% 47% 40% +3.0%
≤30d 61 -15.2% -23.3% 43% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 165 -27.0% -34.0% 38% 32% -12.1%
all 571 -10.9% -19.4% 46% 32% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 32% -11.1%
10% -27.1% 20% -19.6%
15% -34.1% 15% -27.4%
20% -40.6% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses261 / 310
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)571 / 571
History coverage213d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 571 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $158 +$43 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $195 +$21 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $112 +$58 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $36 +$14 +39%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $12 +$6 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $67 −$45 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $43 −$15 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $158 −$53 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $131 −$94 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $62 +$57 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$8 +270%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$65 +334%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $144 −$25 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$20 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $47 −$15 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $28 −$22 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $53 +$21 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $41 +$18 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$41 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $50 −$6 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $201 47m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $107 48m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $153 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $137 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $137 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $68 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $41 8h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $49 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 44h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $28 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $43 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1719 history records