Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4f8…436c sports 193 markets active 8d ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$457 (-5%) realized −$457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%124W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$647
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$489
crypto 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 106 -2.8% -12.0% 63% 62% -18.8%
≤90d 184 -1.9% -11.3% 64% 62% -14.7%
all 193 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 62% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 62% -14.8%
10% -19.3% 58% -22.9%
15% -27.1% 44% -30.4%
20% -34.3% 28% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$44 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses124 / 69
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)193 / 193
History coverage148d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 193 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $64 +$28 +43%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $54 +$11 +20%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $37 +$16 +43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $21 +$16 +78%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $55 +$21 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $83 −$83 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $61 +$23 +38%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $38 +$22 +58%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $33 +$6 +17%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $113 −$112 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $63 +$27 +43%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $42 +$22 +52%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $34 +$8 +23%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $33 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $42 −$42 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $36 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $84 −$83 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$16 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$10 +36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $55 +$28 +51%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$17 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $35 +$11 +31%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$11 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$16 +81%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $83 +$27 +33%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$27 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$30 +53%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $83 −$83 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $70 +$13 +19%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $56 +$14 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $66 −$66 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $55 +$12 +21%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $44 +$11 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Five Fears (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $27 +$17 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $55 7d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 86¢ $65 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $27 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $92 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $64 8d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $64 8d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 83¢ $54 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $53 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $37 8d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $37 8d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 65¢ $55 8d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $21 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $76 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $55 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 59¢ $55 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $83 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $83 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $61 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $61 9d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 62¢ $38 9d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $38 9d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 85¢ $33 9d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 75¢ $113 11d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $91 11d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $91 11d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $63 11d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $63 11d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 65¢ $42 11d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $42 11d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 81¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records