trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -18.9% | -26.6% | 0% | 0% | -13.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -18.9% | -26.6% | 0% | 0% | -13.4% |
| all | 25 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 56% | 8% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.9% | 8% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -23.9% | 4% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -31.3% | 4% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $43 | $44 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $3 | −$2 | -57% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 27 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 01 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 30 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? | Mar 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 27 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 21 | $1 | +$1 | +41% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $12 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |