Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc4fa…7e82 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$54 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$952now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$52
other 4% +$36
politics 2% +$6
crypto 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 71% 71% -14.8%
≤90d 10 +22.0% +10.4% 80% 80% -11.9%
all 10 +22.0% +10.4% 80% 80% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 80% -11.9%
10% -0.1% 70% -20.3%
15% -9.8% 60% -28.0%
20% -18.6% 40% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$190 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$952
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage78d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 72¢ 74¢ $920 $952 +$32 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $16 −$16 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $368 −$363 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $289 +$79 +27%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $124 +$63 +51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $120 +$107 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $83 +$36 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 11 $50 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 06 $26 +$12 +46%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 06 $32 +$6 +20%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $18 +$14 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $249 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $679 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $16 42h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $368 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $368 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $289 14d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 66¢ $124 14d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $120 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $83 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 59¢ $50 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 53d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 53d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 78d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $32 78d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 56¢ $18 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $952.30 · official $952.30 (match) · 20 history records