Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4fb…ff79 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%48W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$3
other 33% +$2
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 49 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses48 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage9d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Iraq (-4.5) Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: Iraq (-4.5) BUY Senegal 100¢ $100 3h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $3 6h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $25 6h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $29 6h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $25 6h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $18 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 100¢ $100 13h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $100 26h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $100 26h
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY No 100¢ $100 26h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? SELL No 100¢ $100 46h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $100 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 100¢ $100 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $100 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 100¢ $100 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $100 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $24 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 100¢ $76 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.90 · official $199.90 (match) · 111 history records