Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4fb…e34e other 233 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$309 (-4%) realized −$329 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%122W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$115
14 days+$31
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$615
sports 34% +$243
crypto 4% −$35
world 1% +$46
politics 1% +$29
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +22.2% +10.5% 68% 68% +8.4%
≤30d 38 +5.6% -4.4% 58% 58% -8.5%
≤90d 112 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 53% -16.5%
all 230 -5.9% -14.9% 53% 51% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 51% -13.4%
10% -23.0% 47% -21.7%
15% -30.5% 40% -29.3%
20% -37.3% 28% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses122 / 108
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)230 / 233
History coverage137d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $41 $61 +$20 (+49%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $22 +$37 +165%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $41 +$21 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$22 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $35 +$20 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$17 -69%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$20 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36 −$35 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $25 −$3 -13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$43 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 +$4 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $36 +$33 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 +$36 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$51 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$22 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $31 +$23 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $60 +$18 +29%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 08 $10 −$5 -53%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) May 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5 May 08 $35 −$35 -99%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 May 08 $35 −$35 -99%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score May 02 $25 +$19 +73%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 02 $26 +$26 +97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $69 −$69 -99%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $41 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $22 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $32 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $41 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $40 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $35 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $36 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $36 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $12 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $36 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $36 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.30 · official $156.30 (match) · 491 history records