Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C4 0xc4fe…5775 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$552 (-67%) realized −$551 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$274per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-51.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-46.8%	-51.9%	50%	0%	-82.1%
≤30d	2	-46.8%	-51.9%	50%	0%	-82.1%
≤90d	2	-46.8%	-51.9%	50%	0%	-82.1%
all	2	-46.8%	-51.9%	50%	0%	-82.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.9%	0%	-82.1%
10%	-56.5%	0%	-83.8%
15%	-60.7%	0%	-85.4%
20%	-64.6%	0%	-86.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -80% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -47% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$560 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$134

Realized−$551

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage16d

Avg bet$274

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	84¢	84¢	$134	$134	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Jun 28	$128	+$8	+6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Jun 28	$560	−$560	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	84¢	$17	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	84¢	$118	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	SELL Yes	99¢	$136	6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	93¢	$128	6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY No	56¢	$8	16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	BUY No	56¢	$552	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.60 · official $133.60 (match) · 7 history records