Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4fe…601f sports 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3377 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$6,931 (-14%) realized −$6,374 · open −$557
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%137W / 378L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day3377.0pace
Fees−$618est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$7,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$7,501
other 6% +$3,671
culture 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3377 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 515 +50.0% +35.7% 27% 24% -5.0%
≤30d 515 +50.0% +35.7% 27% 24% -5.0%
≤90d 515 +50.0% +35.7% 27% 24% -5.0%
all 515 +50.0% +35.7% 27% 24% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3377.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.7% 24% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here +22.7% 21% -14.1%
15% +10.8% 20% -22.4%
20% -0.0% 18% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +115% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$38 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7,324
Realized−$6,374
Unrealized−$557
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses137 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$618
Open positions55
Markets (closed)515 / 124
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$399
Trades / day3377.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 59¢ 100¢ $1,201 $2,036 +$834 (+69%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 84¢ 92¢ $1,006 $1,110 +$104 (+10%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner T1 70¢ 96¢ $734 $996 +$262 (+36%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 56¢ $552 $584 +$33 (+6%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 66¢ 68¢ $208 $212 +$5 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 86¢ $190 $203 +$13 (+7%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Over 49¢ 74¢ $88 $132 +$44 (+50%)
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Washington Freedom Washington Freedom 48¢ 55¢ $108 $123 +$15 (+14%)
Wimbledon ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 50¢ 50¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 20¢ 4¢ $331 $75 −$257 (-77%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 47¢ 65¢ $47 $65 +$18 (+38%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 4¢ 41¢ $6 $61 +$55 (+925%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Yes 47¢ 52¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+10%)
Mets de Guaynabo vs. Gigantes de Carolina Gigantes de Carolina 77¢ 100¢ $41 $53 +$12 (+29%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 54¢ 44¢ $59 $48 −$11 (-19%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 39¢ 39¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 40¢ 22¢ $79 $43 −$36 (-46%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 12¢ 12¢ $32 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 99¢ $18 $28 +$11 (+60%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK Academy 32¢ 50¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+53%)
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BALU 32¢ 34¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-16? No 79¢ 64¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-18%)
Spread: GV CD San José (-1.5) GV CD San José 24¢ 57¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+137%)
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? No 34¢ 80¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+138%)
Spread: GV CD San José (-2.5) GV CD San José 8¢ 50¢ $2 $15 +$12 (+520%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 431 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $421 +$77 +18%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $125 +$30 +24%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $88 +$66 +75%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 29 $43 +$25 +57%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $38 +$29 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $50 +$3 +7%
Set 2 Winner: Marcinko vs Keys Jun 29 $42 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Wingman (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 29 $16 +$17 +106%
Counter-Strike: NEXORA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 29 $24 −$9 -37%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $0 −$60 -14340%
ITF Sapporo: Yuka Hosoki vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 29 $0 $0 +11%
Algeria vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 +271%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5) Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kalinina vs Marcinko Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 29 $1 +$12 +2005%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $81 −$78 -96%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 29 $63 −$51 -82%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 29 $0 +$3 +785%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 29 $149 −$187 -126%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $13 −$12 -86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $8 +$4 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Inglis vs Bronzetti Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5) Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $227 −$227 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $5 +$3 +68%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-05-23? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Fritz Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia Jun 29 $18 −$12 -69%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 $0 -8%
ITF Wichita: Dan Martin vs Zsombor Velcz Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Camilla Gennaro vs Anastasia Abbagnato Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 +$1 +68%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $197 −$197 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Catarina Melleiro vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Jun 29 $136 −$136 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleks Jun 29 $16 −$15 -94%
ITF Monastir: Leonardo Cattaneo vs Jacob Bradshaw Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 4¢ $2 2m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 5¢ $7 3m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 3m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $8 3m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 3m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $9 3m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $21 3m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 3m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $18 4m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $49 4m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 4m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $86 5m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $24 5m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $28 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $18 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $19 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $13 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 6m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $14 7m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 7m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $20 7m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $17 7m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $18 8m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $26 8m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $36 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,324.03 · official $7,329.14 (match) · 3500 history records