Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4ff…f480 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$19
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$8
other 31% −$11
politics 16% $0
sports 14% −$1
finance 4% +$13
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.2% 43% 14% -7.8%
≤30d 26 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 38 -1.8% -11.2% 39% 3% -9.4%
all 79 -0.7% -10.2% 35% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 51
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage300d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $124 −$3 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $52 +$4 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $132 +$15 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $131 −$3 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $8 −$2 -22%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $210 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $125 +$6 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $9 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $152 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $132 +$5 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $171 −$4 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $79 −$7 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $91 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $26 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $3 −$1 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $94 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $594 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $112 +$1 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $121 −$15 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $136 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $123 +$8 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $206 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $694 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $690 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $121 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $124 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $127 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $132 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $15 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $96 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $111 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $56 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $128 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $131 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $66 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $65 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $93 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $101 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $119 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $119 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 7¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records