Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc501…edb6 crypto 76 markets active 4d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,524 (-25%) realized −$1,524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$39
14 days−$744
30 days−$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,448
finance 5% −$32
other 3% −$206
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.4% +8.0% 67% 67% +2.7%
≤30d 21 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 43% -54.9%
≤90d 75 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -35.1%
all 76 -17.8% -25.7% 41% 39% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 39% -36.4%
10% -32.8% 36% -42.5%
15% -39.3% 28% -48.0%
20% -45.2% 21% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$66 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage88d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $76 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $34 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$8 +31%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $784 −$784 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $291 −$39 -13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $47 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 25 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 25 $33 +$20 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 25 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 24 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 24 $68 −$29 -43%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 24 $38 −$4 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 21 $80 −$76 -95%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $165 −$162 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $99 −$93 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $46 −$43 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $582 +$75 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $48 −$45 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Apr 16 $185 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11AM ET Apr 13 $175 −$163 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3PM ET Apr 07 $30 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 07 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3PM ET Apr 06 $150 −$33 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 06 $202 −$192 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 06 $54 +$25 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 06 $125 −$118 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 06 $158 +$128 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 06 $35 −$26 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 06 $43 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 06 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 06 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 06 $53 −$49 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 06 $56 −$30 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 06 $51 +$84 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 06 $54 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 06 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 06 $48 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 06 $65 +$35 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 06 $50 +$17 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records