Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc502…bb6b politics 44 markets active 1d ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
politics 26% $0
other 17% −$5
sports 4% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$18
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 15% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 15% 0% -10.6%
all 44 -5.7% -14.7% 25% 2% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 2% -12.0%
10% -22.8% 2% -20.4%
15% -30.3% 0% -28.1%
20% -37.1% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage263d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $43 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 −$2 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $44 −$5 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 02 $2 $0 +26%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $16 $0 -1%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $22 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $10 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $34 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $36 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $40 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $34 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records