Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc509…5ae3 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-5%) realized −$331 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days−$71
14 days−$351
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$164
sports 32% −$57
crypto 7% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 82% 53% -13.0%
≤30d 28 -5.2% -14.2% 79% 43% -16.9%
≤90d 28 -5.2% -14.2% 79% 43% -16.9%
all 28 -5.2% -14.2% 79% 43% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 43% -16.9%
10% -22.4% 25% -24.9%
15% -29.9% 14% -32.1%
20% -36.8% 7% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$125 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,120
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage17d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wo Jun 25 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor Jun 25 $101 +$45 +44%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W Jun 25 $100 +$35 +35%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the announcers say "Neymar" 5+ times during the Scotland vs Brazi Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA Jun 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $201 +$52 +26%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C Jun 22 $100 +$3 +4%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the France vs Iraq FIFA W Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Ao Tanaka be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Zion Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $200 +$9 +4%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Alex Freeman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$34 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$22 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wo BUY Yes 96¢ $32 3h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W BUY Yes 74¢ $82 5h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W BUY Yes 74¢ $18 5h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Japan vs Sweden FI BUY Yes 97¢ $100 9h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany BUY Yes 96¢ $100 9h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wor BUY Yes 68¢ $101 9h
Will the announcers say "Neymar" 5+ times during the Scotland vs Brazi BUY Yes 98¢ $100 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 82¢ $101 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 2d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the France vs Iraq FIFA W BUY Yes 75¢ $51 3d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C BUY Yes 97¢ $100 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $100 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 11d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11d
Will Ao Tanaka be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY No 94¢ $100 11d
Will Zion Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 11d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $101 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 12d
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 12d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,119.84 · official $1,119.85 (match) · 65 history records