Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc50a…8807 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,008 (+14%) realized +$999 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +202% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +162% what you keep after slip
Net edge+162%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$619per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$956
sports 16% +$992
other 10% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+172.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +213.6% +183.7% 90% 40% +4.1%
≤30d 11 +201.7% +172.9% 91% 45% +15.3%
≤90d 11 +201.7% +172.9% 91% 45% +15.3%
all 11 +201.7% +172.9% 91% 45% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +172.9% 45% +15.3%
10% +146.8% 36% +4.3%
15% +123.0% 36% -5.8%
20% +101.1% 36% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +202% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$500 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.89 per $1 lost it wins $4.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$769
Realized+$999
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage15d
Avg bet$619
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $760 $769 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $519 +$587 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $502 +$35 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $106 +$149 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $503 +$40 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $2,533 +$549 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $501 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,200 +$992 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $760 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $519 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $502 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $239 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $507 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1,474 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $552 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $205 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $994 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $769.46 · official $773.00 (match) · 32 history records