Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc50a…2fd6 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$12
14 days−$6
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$80
sports 17% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 36% -11.7%
≤30d 40 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 38% -14.5%
≤90d 40 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 38% -14.5%
all 40 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 38% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 38% -14.5%
10% -27.8% 30% -22.7%
15% -34.8% 22% -30.1%
20% -41.2% 15% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage27d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $32 −$15 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $42 −$11 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$10 +30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $23 +$9 +37%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 −$5 -9%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$10 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$7 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$4 +35%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$12 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$11 +221%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$13 +40%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +228%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +246%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 −$13 -82%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 04 $26 −$25 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $55 +$38 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 24m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 41m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 45m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $42 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $32 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $33 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $23 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $22 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $22 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $19 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records