Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc50c…fe5d sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,223 (+3%) realized +$3,184 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%87W / 70L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$605per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$689est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$605now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,923
7 days+$4,443
14 days+$3,362
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$4,524
crypto 22% −$1,949
other 7% +$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.1% -8.5% 61% 61% +0.6%
≤30d 89 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 55% -7.3%
≤90d 122 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 55% -5.5%
all 157 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 52% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 52% -5.9%
10% -19.2% 45% -14.9%
15% -27.0% 36% -23.1%
20% -34.2% 27% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$785) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$409 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$605
Realized+$3,184
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses87 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$689
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage188d
Avg bet$605
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $566 $605 +$39 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $431 +$139 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $345 +$82 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $272 +$305 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $274 +$81 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $507 +$466 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $505 −$505 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $349 −$347 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $128 +$221 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $214 +$114 +53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $374 +$92 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $318 +$106 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $367 +$49 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $308 +$61 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,558 +$1,183 +46%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1,683 +$876 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $627 −$605 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,400 −$843 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$19 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $998 +$454 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,299 −$1,122 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,943 +$4,336 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $230 −$223 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $766 −$725 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1,477 −$1,430 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $696 +$779 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $616 −$616 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,240 −$1,408 -63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $772 +$87 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $188 −$108 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,111 +$264 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $463 +$150 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $298 +$173 +58%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $809 +$490 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,500 +$1,092 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $510 +$358 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $308 +$191 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$104 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $621 +$599 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1,902 −$299 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,044 −$1,030 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $742 +$298 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $446 +$259 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,099 +$377 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,619 +$479 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $407 −$378 -93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $448 −$444 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $392 +$53 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $569 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $570 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $431 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $427 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $345 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $577 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $272 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $355 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $274 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $974 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $507 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $299 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $349 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $350 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $128 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $328 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $214 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $466 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $374 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $424 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $318 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $416 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $367 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $368 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $308 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,741 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,558 27h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $2,559 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $1,683 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.91 · official $604.91 (match) · 380 history records