Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc50c…02a2 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$27
culture 8% $0
sports 5% −$2
other 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -38.2% -44.1% 23% 23% -39.9%
≤30d 13 -38.2% -44.1% 23% 23% -39.9%
≤90d 13 -38.2% -44.1% 23% 23% -39.9%
all 13 -38.2% -44.1% 23% 23% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.1% 23% -39.9%
10% ← realistic here -49.5% 23% -45.7%
15% -54.3% 15% -50.9%
20% -58.8% 15% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -35%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +51%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$3 -91%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 2h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.68 · official $9.68 (match) · 30 history records