Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc50e…465f other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL −$145 (-12%) realized −$158 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$296
14 days−$316
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$15
other 23% −$64
sports 19% +$24
politics 8% −$102
tech 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -67.7% -70.8% 12% 12% -96.2%
≤30d 34 +1.7% -8.0% 26% 26% -21.3%
≤90d 43 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 30% -22.8%
all 43 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 30% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 30% -22.8%
10% -17.9% 28% -30.2%
15% -25.8% 28% -37.0%
20% -33.1% 26% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)43 / 54
History coverage47d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 73¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 20¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$6 +114%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $209 +$36 +17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$8 +150%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C May 31 $5 $0 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $50 +$18 +37%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 VfB Stuttgart? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 VfB Stuttgart? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 28 $68 −$5 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $165 +$108 +66%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 VfB Stuttgart? May 23 $5 +$77 +1504%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 23 $10 +$22 +216%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$14 +139%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 10 $32 −$32 -100%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $3 +$2 +58%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$21 +104%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $10 +$16 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $20 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $20 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $2 7d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $2 7d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $1 7d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 73¢ $143 13d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 BUY No 11¢ $10 13d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $10 13d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $21 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 14d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 41¢ $41 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $245 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $20 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 BUY No 41¢ $20 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.36 · official $148.36 (match) · 141 history records