Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc510…5c9f weather 483 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,988 (-7%) realized −$2,985 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate67%325W / 157L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$33
14 days+$12
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% −$511
sports 45% −$2,556
other 8% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 12% -8.5%
≤30d 98 -6.7% -15.6% 81% 8% -13.8%
≤90d 482 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 20% -16.0%
all 482 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 20% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 20% -16.0%
10% -23.2% 12% -24.0%
15% -30.6% 7% -31.4%
20% -37.4% 5% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$41 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized−$2,985
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses325 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions1
Markets (closed)482 / 483
History coverage76d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? No 99¢ 98¢ $584 $582 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $578 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $576 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $572 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $553 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $55 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $54 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $47 +$2 +5%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $28 +$19 +68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $38 −$16 -42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$8 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $585 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $585 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $578 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $359 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $124 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $40 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $576 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $576 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $572 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $572 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $491 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $60 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $60 22h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $55 33h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $55 34h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $54 38h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $54 38h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $52 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $52 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $47 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $27 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.95 · official $581.95 (match) · 1061 history records