Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc510…065d sports 484 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized −$254 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%199W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$347
other 19% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +20.7% +9.2% 46% 43% +2.2%
≤30d 28 +20.7% +9.2% 46% 43% +2.2%
≤90d 468 -6.0% -15.0% 43% 36% -13.5%
all 468 -6.0% -15.0% 43% 36% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 36% -13.5%
10% -23.1% 33% -21.8%
15% -30.5% 28% -29.3%
20% -37.3% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$254
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses199 / 269
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions16
Markets (closed)468 / 484
History coverage76d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 37¢ 74¢ $21 $42 +$21 (+102%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Haiti 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 27¢ 48¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+80%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 41¢ 66¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden leading at halftime? No 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia leading at halftime? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will IK Start win on 2026-04-06? Yes 22¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Clippers 44¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Predators vs. Sharks Sharks 57¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: FC Augsburg (-2.5) FC Augsburg 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Warriors 52¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-05? No $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Independiente Medellín vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 −$7 -96%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $65 −$54 -84%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $5 +$3 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 +$73 +409%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +116%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +194%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 +$32 +437%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 14 $4 +$14 +321%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +149%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 +$23 +126%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Tallahassee: Hynek Barton vs Michael Mmoh Apr 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $1 $0 +46%
NK Slaven Belupo vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 3.5 Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $1 +$1 +92%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-03-07? Apr 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Diamond Dolphins vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Lilli Tagge Apr 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Wuning 2: Justin Boulais vs Philip Sekulic Apr 15 $10 +$62 +611%
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5) Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 14 $5 +$4 +75%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -99%
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Central Córdoba: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $7 +$4 +52%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $9 +$4 +46%
Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-4.5) Apr 12 $6 −$6 -97%
CA Bucaramanga vs. Boyacá Chicó FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $11 −$11 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1m
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $1 11m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 45m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 45m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $7 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox $7 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 41¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $1 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $1 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 50¢ $17 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 73¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.35 · official $79.35 (match) · 1184 history records