Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc511…f43b crypto 225 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-9%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%76W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$98
14 days−$185
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$167
sports 13% −$45
other 3% +$12
tech 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -14.5% -22.6% 39% 37% -26.3%
≤30d 218 -20.7% -28.3% 35% 31% -27.2%
≤90d 218 -20.7% -28.3% 35% 31% -27.2%
all 218 -20.7% -28.3% 35% 31% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 31% -27.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 28% -34.1%
15% -41.4% 23% -40.5%
20% -47.2% 22% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses76 / 142
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)218 / 225
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 53¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 52¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $8 +$15 +178%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
HSBC Championships: Alexander Blockx vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 29¢ $1 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Alycia Parks 25¢ $1 3d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 49¢ $1 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $1 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 54¢ $1 3d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 69¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 48¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 52¢ $1 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 49¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships: Alexander Blockx vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Alexander Blockx 51¢ $1 3d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 52¢ $1 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 61¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 62¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff BUY Hanfmann/Struff 78¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 11¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $7.95 (match) · 500 history records