Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc512…a24f crypto 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2820 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,641 (+125%) realized +$17,635 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%175W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2820.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2820 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 23% -10.3%
≤30d 353 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 23% -10.3%
≤90d 353 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 23% -10.3%
all 353 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 23% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2820.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 23% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 15% -18.9%
15% -24.2% 10% -26.7%
20% -31.6% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$17,635
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses175 / 178
Open positions2
Markets (closed)353 / 354
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2820.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 75¢ 50¢ $22 $14 −$7 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 36¢ 50¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Up 44¢ 50¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 22 $105 −$174 -166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $406 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $203 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $118 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $91 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $480 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $249 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $158 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $107 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $61 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $123 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $135 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $245 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $244 −$35 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $94 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $125 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $72 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $560 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $97 −$50 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $115 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $76 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $237 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $75 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $300 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $47 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $17 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.62 · official $41.62 (match) · 3500 history records