Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc513…b4f5 sports 24 markets active 18h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+6%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$25
other 40% +$29
politics 6% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 42% -7.4%
≤30d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 42% -7.4%
≤90d 24 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 42% -7.4%
all 24 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 42% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 42% -7.4%
10% -19.3% 42% -16.2%
15% -27.1% 33% -24.3%
20% -34.2% 21% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage55d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $44 −$17 -39%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Bot Jun 17 $9 −$8 -83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 −$6 -10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 −$7 -37%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 +$17 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 +$20 +56%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$30 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$16 +34%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $44 +$13 +28%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $55 −$6 -11%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $17 +$14 +79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 +$16 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 45¢ $27 17h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Australia 22¢ $10 17h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 72¢ $44 18h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $30 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 36h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $8 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $40 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Bot SELL $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Bot BUY 16¢ $9 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $14 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $18 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $17 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $18 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $7 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $17 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $13 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records