Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc514…e9b4 sports 573 markets active 0h ago coverage 502d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,365 (-7%) realized −$4,332 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%166W / 406L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$561est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$315
7 days−$1,695
14 days−$1,406
30 days−$1,271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$2,996
other 30% −$1,160
politics 2% −$133
world 1% −$632
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -36.8% -42.8% 17% 16% -30.8%
≤30d 104 -20.3% -27.9% 25% 23% -23.4%
≤90d 464 -37.1% -43.1% 22% 21% -33.1%
all 572 -20.1% -27.7% 29% 28% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 28% -17.1%
10% -34.6% 26% -25.0%
15% -40.9% 24% -32.2%
20% -46.7% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$64 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$4,332
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses166 / 406
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$561
Open positions1
Markets (closed)572 / 573
History coverage502d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 572 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 18¢ $78 $45 −$33 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $91 −$12 -13%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$9 -9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $16 +$10 +64%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $124 −$37 -30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $199 −$196 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$326 +708%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $177 −$117 -66%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $239 −$115 -48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 −$7 -21%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 17 $126 −$87 -69%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $144 −$141 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $33 +$130 +397%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $263 +$84 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $185 −$33 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $147 +$43 +29%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$15 -39%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 −$12 -19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $98 −$9 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $99 −$80 -81%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $66 −$48 -73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $141 +$20 +14%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $120 +$219 +183%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $88 +$126 +143%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $229 −$85 -37%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $167 −$27 -16%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $81 +$216 +267%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 +$126 +156%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $112 −$9 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $69 +$29 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $132 −$12 -9%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $61 −$18 -29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $111 +$9 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $29 +$37 +130%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $92 +$60 +65%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$13 -88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 11 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $126 −$80 -63%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $0 26m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $78 26m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 17¢ $34 33m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 17¢ $4 33m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 17¢ $41 34m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $91 44m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 21¢ $91 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $16 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $87 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $8 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $116 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 16¢ $47 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 39¢ $166 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $29 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $373 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $46 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $118 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 52¢ $118 7h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $52 20h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $3 20h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 27¢ $55 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $239 20h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $59 20h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $89 20h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $163 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $224 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 45¢ $124 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.32 · official $45.32 (match) · 2618 history records