Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc518…2594
weather · 744 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$16,079 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,495 · open −$1,142
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,532
Realized−$19,495
Unrealized−$1,142
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions491
Markets (closed)206 / 744
History coverage3d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day922.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 491 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,602
7 days−$19,495
14 days−$19,495
30 days−$19,495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 98¢ $21 $102 +$81 (+388%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 17¢ 87¢ $16 $85 +$69 (+421%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 88¢ $3 $70 +$68 (+2452%)
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? No 72¢ 88¢ $54 $66 +$12 (+23%)
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 5¢ 93¢ $3 $65 +$62 (+1954%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 34¢ $5 $62 +$56 (+1066%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 14¢ 97¢ $9 $61 +$52 (+580%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 10¢ 78¢ $7 $57 +$49 (+680%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Yes 8¢ 100¢ $4 $56 +$51 (+1229%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 1¢ 79¢ $1 $55 +$54 (+5746%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% or more? No 96¢ 99¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 72¢ $15 $54 +$39 (+262%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 76¢ $9 $54 +$45 (+512%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $5 $50 +$45 (+997%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $5 $50 +$45 (+997%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 94¢ 96¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 6¢ 99¢ $3 $48 +$46 (+1652%)
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 3¢ 96¢ $1 $48 +$46 (+3325%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 92¢ $10 $46 +$36 (+362%)
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 3¢ 92¢ $2 $46 +$44 (+2648%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 50¢ $3 $46 +$43 (+1516%)
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $6 $45 +$39 (+673%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 81¢ $2 $44 +$42 (+2330%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 17¢ 86¢ $8 $43 +$35 (+416%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $638 −$205 -32%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $668 −$538 -80%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $159 −$99 -62%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 −$103 -72%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $219 −$164 -75%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $258 −$163 -63%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $270 −$230 -85%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $265 −$203 -77%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $269 −$229 -85%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $269 −$229 -85%
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $130 −$90 -69%
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $129 −$89 -69%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 12 $290 −$234 -81%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $271 −$226 -83%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 12 $318 −$228 -72%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1,144 −$925 -81%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1,076 −$1,055 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $108 −$63 -58%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $926 −$905 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $148 −$137 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $138 −$98 -71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 −$49 -55%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $167 −$37 -22%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $150 −$110 -73%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $211 −$121 -57%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $220 −$50 -23%
Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $59 −$51 -86%
Will Ethan Wechtaluk be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $51 −$43 -84%
Will Daniel Krakower be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will Alexis Goldstein be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will George Gluck be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 12 $60 −$50 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $163 −$123 -75%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $492 −$490 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $139 −$128 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $139 −$89 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 12 $28 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$30 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$30 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$30 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 28% −$6,844
weather 22% −$5,934
other 20% −$3,379
politics 11% −$1,376
finance 4% −$219
economics 4% −$497
culture 4% −$412
sports 3% −$1,409
crypto 2% −$624
world 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 3¢ $0 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $144 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 100¢ $45 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $428 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 3¢ $1 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $191 8m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $41 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $49 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 39¢ $20 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $50 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $49 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 88¢ $44 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $49 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $151 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 86¢ $43 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 41¢ $43 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $231 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY No 98¢ $98 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $262 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $99 11m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 6¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 13m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $50 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on BUY No 100¢ $50 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY No 92¢ $46 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on BUY No 99¢ $50 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on BUY No 99¢ $49 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 83¢ $42 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 26¢ $13 17m
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $4 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-60.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -56.3% -60.4% 5% 5% -76.6%
≤30d 206 -56.3% -60.4% 5% 5% -76.6%
≤90d 206 -56.3% -60.4% 5% 5% -76.6%
all 206 -56.3% -60.4% 5% 5% -76.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover922.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.4% 5% -76.6%
10% ← realistic here -64.2% 5% -78.8%
15% -67.7% 4% -80.9%
20% -70.8% 4% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,531.60 · official $4,617.58 · 3500 history records