Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc51c…2195 politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$11
other 25% −$6
sports 21% −$6
crypto 8% −$7
culture 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
economics 3% −$2
finance 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 100 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 127 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 114
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage110d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? No 95¢ 95¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $64 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $61 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $61 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $597 −$2 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $222 $0 +0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $63 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 14 $91 −$2 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 14 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 12 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $160 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $117 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 10 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 08 $58 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 07 $47 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 06 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $125 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $264 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 8d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $64 16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $64 16d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $61 27d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 27d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 96¢ $59 40d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $60 40d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $58 40d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $58 40d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $58 40d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $58 41d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $61 41d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $40 41d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $21 41d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $48 41d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $48 41d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $51 41d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $52 41d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 41d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 42d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $49 42d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $49 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 94¢ $41 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 95¢ $42 42d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $63 42d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $63 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 94¢ $43 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $45 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.13 · official $57.13 (match) · 485 history records