Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C5 0xc51d…078d other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$35 (+13%) realized +$47 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip

Net edge+49%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+48.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+20.9%	+9.4%	100%	100%	+2.0%
≤30d	2	+20.9%	+9.4%	100%	100%	+2.0%
≤90d	3	+64.5%	+48.8%	100%	100%	+13.4%
all	3	+64.5%	+48.8%	100%	100%	+13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+48.8%	100%	+13.4%
10%	+34.6%	67%	+2.5%
15%	+21.6%	33%	-7.4%
20%	+9.7%	33%	-16.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized+$47

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage56d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	92¢	84¢	$135	$123	−$12 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Jun 18	$120	+$14	+12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Jun 17	$6	+$2	+30%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main	Apr 26	$12	+$19	+152%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$136	1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	SELL No	97¢	$134	1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	BUY No	86¢	$120	28h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY Yes	77¢	$6	55d
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Raoni Barcelos	39¢	$12	55d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.33 · official $123.33 (match) · 7 history records