Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C5 0xc522…9e81 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$746 (+12%) realized +$744 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR13%break-even

Win rate80%12W / 3L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$371per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1

7 days+$1

14 days+$1

30 days+$2

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +13%

net ROI/market (all)-9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+3.6%	-6.3%	100%	0%	-6.3%
≤30d	3	+3.4%	-6.5%	100%	0%	-6.5%
≤90d	6	+10.7%	+0.2%	100%	17%	-8.8%
all	15	+0.4%	-9.2%	80%	13%	+1.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.2%	13%	+1.2%
10%	-17.9%	13%	-8.5%
15%	-25.8%	13%	-17.3%
20%	-33.1%	7%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

83% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late +13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$62 vs −$2 · ×29.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×175.18 per $1 lost it wins $175.18

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage

Net worth$56

Realized+$744

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses12 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage141d

Avg bet$371

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	86¢	90¢	$34	$36	+$2 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$27	+$1	+4%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May?	Jun 01	$20	$0	+1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?	May 29	$19	+$1	+5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	May 18	$2,060	+$2	+0%
Wild vs. Avalanche	May 18	$26	+$14	+52%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?	May 05	$20	$0	+2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	Mar 17	$30	$0	+0%
Pacers vs. Bucks	Mar 16	$1,971	+$729	+37%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me	Feb 28	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 13	$32	$0	+0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 12	$1,998	−$2	-0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	Feb 11	$15	$0	+0%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 10?	Feb 10	$8	$0	+4%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	Feb 04	$15	$0	+0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 03	$15	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	84¢	$20	1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	93¢	$28	1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	89¢	$27	14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY Yes	83¢	$25	23d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY Yes	95¢	$10	33d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$20	33d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$19	33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	SELL No	100¢	$2,062	34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$2,060	34d
Wild vs. Avalanche	BUY Avalanche	65¢	$26	47d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?	BUY No	98¢	$20	65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	SELL No	100¢	$30	96d
Pacers vs. Bucks	BUY Bucks	73¢	$1,971	98d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$30	108d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	113d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$32	127d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$32	129d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$1,996	129d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	SELL No	99¢	$15	130d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$1,998	131d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	BUY No	99¢	$15	131d
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 10?	SELL No	84¢	$8	131d
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 10?	BUY No	81¢	$8	131d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	SELL No	100¢	$15	137d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?	BUY No	100¢	$15	138d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$15	138d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$15	140d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.08 · official $56.08 (match) · 40 history records